Stocks, charts, risk management & coffee

Today looked like a lot of fireworks early but turned out to be a non-event. All of the indexes and stocks I discussed yesterday either closed above or at support.
SPY is a good example of this.

I ended up trading flat today which was good for a long portfolio. I rang the register on Standard [...]

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§427 · August 31, 2009 · Uncategorized · View Comments ·


This week’s Sunday Night Coffee post is similar to last week’s post. I’m carrying a long bias into the market this week. I see a lot of long setups and I am not seeing many good short candidates. There is some strong resistance coming which will at the very least cause the market to pause. [...]

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§426 · August 29, 2009 · ADM, AKS, BJRI, DO, ETFC, FCX, HMC, HXM, LCRD, MR, NPK, ODP, PCX, PGN, Sunday Night Coffee, TM, TNS, V · View Comments ·


I saw the headline on Drudge Report that stocks surged the most in 6 months since 1933. This begged the question of what happened after the run in 1933 and how much did the market move off the lows in 1933?

I only have data this old on $DJI. The interesting thing is that in 1933 [...]

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§425 · August 29, 2009 · Uncategorized · View Comments ·


I mentioned earlier today that government owned companies have been rallying hard.
Let’s take a deeper look.

I mentioned last week that I bought C on the breakout above the $4.50 level. Today C closed above $5 for the first time since January.

I mentioned that I shorted AIG in the pre-market at about $41.50. Obviously not a [...]

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§424 · August 27, 2009 · AIG, C, FNM, FRE · View Comments ·


A run up in government owned stocks today. AIG leading the way.

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§423 · August 27, 2009 · Uncategorized · View Comments ·


I’m looking for some short exposure and I shorted AIG in the pre-market this morning at $41.45. Of course, right after my order executed this shot right up to $42. I’m using a stop just above $44.
This 10-11% move will put RSI on AIG above 80. I usually like a recipe of shorting a very [...]

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§422 · August 27, 2009 · AIG · View Comments ·


I’ve been surfing around and I have noticed that many are taking the long dollar trade. I could end up being wrong but I think long the dollar is a bad trade right now. If you look at UDN, it has been trending along the trendline since March. It is now close to the trendline [...]

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§421 · August 26, 2009 · LQD, UDN · View Comments ·


TXT and BZH looking like breakouts.

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§420 · August 26, 2009 · Uncategorized · View Comments ·


Tonight’s post is short. The casino stocks look interesting.

XOM is forming a giant symmetrical triangle. How it resolves will certainly have a major impact on XLE and DIA. This is one to keep an eye on.

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§419 · August 25, 2009 · BJK, BYD, LVS, XOM · View Comments ·


GLD sold off nicely today but only down to the lower trendline. We’re getting closer to the big move.

Since March, the dollar just keeps trending lower. I initiated a small long position in UDN today. I plan to continue adding to my position. I’ll be using the trendline to manage risk.
Today’s trades:
- Stopped out of [...]

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§418 · August 24, 2009 · GLD, UDN · View Comments ·