Oct
30

Monsanto (MON)

MON caught my eye as a short term trade. RSI is currently at 23 and there is nice support in the 65-66 range.  Even if the market remains soft, I think it is a pretty good bet that MON will bounce off support. I’m trying to get in at about $66.6.

I am looking for long plays to add diversification to my long portfolio. Besides GLD and my soft commodity plays, the only long positions I currently have are MOT, PVTB, and a AXTI.  On the other hand, my short positions consist of IWM, IYT and QQQQ. So while I am happy with my long/short ratio, I’m not happy about the lack of diversification on the long side. My fear is a big up day (and my index shorts get hammered) and one of my longs tanks even with the market being up. I do have the commodity plays that will likely smooth out that risk but I’m still looking for a few more longs to keep things balanced since I’m not ready to turn the ship to the short side.

 

MON

With respect to the overall market, the bearish price action speaks for itself today as well as the continued uptick in the dollar. For now, it looks like it was a smart move to pass on buying the support bounces. 

 

udn_011

I’ll consider the breakdown on UDN confirmed when the 50 day SMA is broken.

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  • Guest
    I have to wonder if everyone is expecting the market to drop will it actually drop? Lets take the CNBC program for example. This guy comes out to say the market is going to drop to the 900s and explains it in great detail with a chart. CNBC has millions of viewers. Then we have all these blogs, which when combined together, have an audience of over 100,000 viewers per day...maybe millions of viewers per day. Then everyone is forwarding emails of charts to various persons.

    We are all aware of the charts by now. So if we are all aware of the charts will this great fall happen again? I suspect next week we will get a surprise...

    Hey chartsandcoffee, this is exactly how I wanted my blog to look on WordPress. However, I kept playing with it and decided that I couldnt make it work. How did you do it?
  • Lots of economic data out next week too. I think the bad trade was to get heavy long or short last week. Too many people get all excited in one direction or the other. Things generally don't happen that quickly.

    For example, other than breaking some 50 day SMAs and some double top patterns, there are no real bearish patterns forming yet. If this is a real leg down, there will be time for those pattern to develop.

    Regarding Wordpress, I'm currently using GoDaddy for server space. They have a Wordpress package for $6.95 a month and it comes with easy instructions to getl Wordpress installed. They generally automate the installation for you.

    If your blog is fortunate to blow up to the point where you need more server space or a dedicated virtual server, you can always scale up. Not a bad problem to have.

    I will say that Wordpress allows you to do a lot more than Blogger but I've spent hours getting this site going. While my programming skills from 15+ years ago are rusty, my foundation is good enough to debug stuff and do some programming.

    For example, when you modify Wordpress I've noticed that I often get different results in different browsers. Internet Explorer seems to be the big pain in the ass. Firefox and Chrome seem to work well.

    If you do make the move, and you are not a computer guy, expect it to be a project. But, in the long run it will be worth it. If you pick a good theme and don't try to tinker too much, it shouldn't be too bad.

    I'll certainly provide you any tips I can to the extent it is within my knowledge base.
  • Guest
    Looks like it might be time to trade CIT...after the bankruptcy filing. I have had some luck in penny stock trading in the past and I was waiting for this bankruptcy filing to get in on some wild penny stocker action.
  • JoeMarc
    If we brk $28 on UDN would you exit your AG/OIL plays ?

    Thanks
    Joseph
  • I plan on keeping COW and BAL unless they are stopped out. I think the soft stuff could potentially hang in there. I exited my XLE early in the week. If USO can take out the 300 day, that would make me revisit oil. Otherwise, I'm not interested in it.

    You'll see when I post my updated portfolio on Sunday that it looks vastly different this week than last week.
  • C, waiting for 3.90 entry, but $4 keeps getting in the way.
  • LONG SPWRA,KGC,GG--
    NYX looks hot!
    APOL RSI 20, just unbelievable!
  • will check out over weekend.
  • Since this morning, I hd MON, on my list of stocks to publish this weekend--I'll post a link when I'm done. haha!
  • I jumped in at the close. I'm already in PVTB (for a second time - was in it from $12 to $11 and got stopped out) with a basis at about $9.5. This was has an RSI in the single digits and is at support. Nothing is a guaranty, but you don't get much better setups than that. Click on the PVTB if you want to see the thread on it.
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