This is a Readers Digest version of Sunday’s post. Let’s start with a look at the ES.
Futures trended up the entire night after the close yesterday. As of 7:54 ET, the overnight range is 1041-1049.
UPDATE: 8:55 ET – 1041-1051
This morning we have the ADP report at 8:15 ET. This will cause gyrations in the market as traders try to read into it for a glimpse of Friday’s jobs report. I wouldn’t expect the ADP report to ultimately matter too much unless it is an extreme reading. The consensus number is –198,000 and the Briefing.com number is –235,000. So if we get a number north of –275,000 I would expect the market to be shaken to the downside. If the number comes in under –175,000, I would expect some traders to take bullish bets ahead of the real report on Friday.
Today is FOMC day so the market may be volatile on the open but will then likely settle down until 2:15 ET. It is virtually certain that the Fed will not change interest rates. However, everyone will be listening to see if they telegraph raising interest rates in the future.
I personally won’t be paying very much attention to the equities during the announcement. I want to see how the dollar reacts. The dollar is hanging on to its 50 day. What I want to know is whether today’s FOMC meeting or Friday’s job number will cause the dollar to breakout over the 50-day or whether the dollar starts re-trending to the downside.
Also keep on your radar that QCOM and CSCO report after the bell today. Those major QQQQ components will need to move higher if the QQQQs are going to continue moving higher. AMZN and AAPL can’t do it alone.
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chartsandcoffee
