Comments on: China Meltdown http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/ Coffee, Charts and Technical Analysis Fri, 12 Mar 2010 01:59:22 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: cliffynator http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/comment-page-1/#comment-1316 cliffynator Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:15:49 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/#comment-1316 Cool, sounds like a nice, simple approach. I'm really liking these ETF's for trading vehicles. Cool, sounds like a nice, simple approach. I'm really liking these ETF's for trading vehicles.

]]> By: chartsandcoffee http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/comment-page-1/#comment-1315 chartsandcoffee Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:11:15 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/#comment-1315 You'll see in my prior posts that my plan is simply to trade one major ETF. I'll start with a small position and if the market moves in the direction of my trade I'll keep adding to it. Everything is so correlated. I don't think there is a need to "diversify" among correlated securities. You'll see in my prior posts that my plan is simply to trade one major ETF. I'll start with a small position and if the market moves in the direction of my trade I'll keep adding to it. Everything is so correlated. I don't think there is a need to “diversify” among correlated securities.

]]> By: cliffynator http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/comment-page-1/#comment-1314 cliffynator Tue, 24 Nov 2009 19:21:37 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/#comment-1314 Excellent points. I'm still petty new at this, but I kept thinking I saw "signs" on the way up, but it just kept going. Although we're now at the long-term down-trendline that goes back to the 2007 peak, and the rising wedge has broken, I could see how a reversal might happen.<br><br>So then the question becomes, is it consolidation or continuation of the LT trend? And how should we play it? Short gold? Buy FAZ? Buy foreign currencies or ADR's? Stock picking those individual equities that don't follow the S&P trend?<br><br>I've considered getting some UUP, maybe shorting FXY and playing a little TMV. Excellent points. I'm still petty new at this, but I kept thinking I saw “signs” on the way up, but it just kept going. Although we're now at the long-term down-trendline that goes back to the 2007 peak, and the rising wedge has broken, I could see how a reversal might happen.

So then the question becomes, is it consolidation or continuation of the LT trend? And how should we play it? Short gold? Buy FAZ? Buy foreign currencies or ADR's? Stock picking those individual equities that don't follow the S&P trend?

I've considered getting some UUP, maybe shorting FXY and playing a little TMV.

]]> By: chartsandcoffee http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/comment-page-1/#comment-1313 chartsandcoffee Tue, 24 Nov 2009 19:04:14 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/#comment-1313 We're actually seeing some cracks this time that we have not seen yet this year. <br><br>1. Short term treasury yields at 0%<br>2. USD approaching 2008 and long term support levels. The article I cited yesterday says Europe's max tolerance for the Euro is 1.55:1. At 1.50 now. UDN trendline already broken (October).<br><br>3. Divergence between small caps (IWM) and large caps (DIA, SPY)<br>4. The all time high club - AAPL, BIDU, IBM and BLK are stalling We're actually seeing some cracks this time that we have not seen yet this year.

1. Short term treasury yields at 0%
2. USD approaching 2008 and long term support levels. The article I cited yesterday says Europe's max tolerance for the Euro is 1.55:1. At 1.50 now. UDN trendline already broken (October).

3. Divergence between small caps (IWM) and large caps (DIA, SPY)
4. The all time high club – AAPL, BIDU, IBM and BLK are stalling

]]> By: cliffynator http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/comment-page-1/#comment-1312 cliffynator Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:53:38 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/#comment-1312 Hey CC, the past week's action looks like the Markets are finally trying to rollover. But they also looked like that about 3 times since March, and each time failed. It seems we've started a new trend, perhaps only flatter climbing? So, I'm wondering if these low-volume declines are due to the algo's taking the week off to spend time with their programmers? Hey CC, the past week's action looks like the Markets are finally trying to rollover. But they also looked like that about 3 times since March, and each time failed. It seems we've started a new trend, perhaps only flatter climbing? So, I'm wondering if these low-volume declines are due to the algo's taking the week off to spend time with their programmers?

]]> By: cliffynator http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/comment-page-1/#comment-555 cliffynator Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:15:49 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/#comment-555 Cool, sounds like a nice, simple approach. I'm really liking these ETF's for trading vehicles. Cool, sounds like a nice, simple approach. I'm really liking these ETF's for trading vehicles.

]]> By: chartsandcoffee http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/comment-page-1/#comment-554 chartsandcoffee Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:11:15 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/#comment-554 You'll see in my prior posts that my plan is simply to trade one major ETF. I'll start with a small position and if the market moves in the direction of my trade I'll keep adding to it. Everything is so correlated. I don't think there is a need to "diversify" among correlated securities. You'll see in my prior posts that my plan is simply to trade one major ETF. I'll start with a small position and if the market moves in the direction of my trade I'll keep adding to it. Everything is so correlated. I don't think there is a need to “diversify” among correlated securities.

]]> By: cliffynator http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/comment-page-1/#comment-553 cliffynator Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:21:37 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/#comment-553 Excellent points. I'm still petty new at this, but I kept thinking I saw "signs" on the way up, but it just kept going. Although we're now at the long-term down-trendline that goes back to the 2007 peak, and the rising wedge has broken, I could see how a reversal might happen.<br><br>So then the question becomes, is it consolidation or continuation of the LT trend? And how should we play it? Short gold? Buy FAZ? Buy foreign currencies or ADR's? Stock picking those individual equities that don't follow the S&P trend?<br><br>I've considered getting some UUP, maybe shorting FXY and playing a little TMV. Excellent points. I'm still petty new at this, but I kept thinking I saw “signs” on the way up, but it just kept going. Although we're now at the long-term down-trendline that goes back to the 2007 peak, and the rising wedge has broken, I could see how a reversal might happen.

So then the question becomes, is it consolidation or continuation of the LT trend? And how should we play it? Short gold? Buy FAZ? Buy foreign currencies or ADR's? Stock picking those individual equities that don't follow the S&P trend?

I've considered getting some UUP, maybe shorting FXY and playing a little TMV.

]]> By: chartsandcoffee http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/comment-page-1/#comment-552 chartsandcoffee Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:04:14 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/#comment-552 We're actually seeing some cracks this time that we have not seen yet this year. <br><br>1. Short term treasury yields at 0%<br>2. USD approaching 2008 and long term support levels. The article I cited yesterday says Europe's max tolerance for the Euro is 1.55:1. At 1.50 now. UDN trendline already broken (October).<br><br>3. Divergence between small caps (IWM) and large caps (DIA, SPY)<br>4. The all time high club - AAPL, BIDU, IBM and BLK are stalling We're actually seeing some cracks this time that we have not seen yet this year.

1. Short term treasury yields at 0%
2. USD approaching 2008 and long term support levels. The article I cited yesterday says Europe's max tolerance for the Euro is 1.55:1. At 1.50 now. UDN trendline already broken (October).

3. Divergence between small caps (IWM) and large caps (DIA, SPY)
4. The all time high club – AAPL, BIDU, IBM and BLK are stalling

]]> By: cliffynator http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/comment-page-1/#comment-551 cliffynator Tue, 24 Nov 2009 12:53:38 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/china-meltdown/#comment-551 Hey CC, the past week's action looks like the Markets are finally trying to rollover. But they also looked like that about 3 times since March, and each time failed. It seems we've started a new trend, perhaps only flatter climbing? So, I'm wondering if these low-volume declines are due to the algo's taking the week off to spend time with their programmers? Hey CC, the past week's action looks like the Markets are finally trying to rollover. But they also looked like that about 3 times since March, and each time failed. It seems we've started a new trend, perhaps only flatter climbing? So, I'm wondering if these low-volume declines are due to the algo's taking the week off to spend time with their programmers?

]]>