Comments on: Closing Thoughts

By: zstock, Pro Select!

zstock, Pro Select! — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:52:40 +0000

STT, the entry is based on P/E–of 9.2-10 ( eps 4.11) X 9.2 – 10 = 37.8 -$41.10
I may get another chance at 38.7–STT already reached one of my 100% exits $43–due to DOW up 203 today, I had a target yesterday, QQQQ reaching 42.4 today, but I lacked the faith yesterday to go long the market.

By: zstock

zstock — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 06:52:40 +0000

By: zstock

zstock — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 05:52:40 +0000

By: chartsandcoffee

chartsandcoffee — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 11:10:27 +0000

A few thoughts:

Keep trading small and keep learning establishing a methodical process. Your indicators are interesting BUT it sounds to me you are getting lost in the details. For example, a very simple trade that could be successful is getting long USO if it breaks its 300 day SMA. If you buy something off a breakout above its 50, 200 and 300 day SMA, it is likely a pretty decent trade and will keep you out of trouble. Also keep your position sizing in the 1-3% range.

Stay away from options too if you are trading them. They only complicate things.

You are getting a lot of experience now which is the most helpful thing of all. Confidence is required in trading and you can't have confidence unless you have been trading for years. Anyone that has been trading for a short period of time and says that they have confidence has false confidence. Once they hit a rough patch, they will short questioning and changing all of their techniques (see the chart in Beyond Technical Analysis).

By: mikevadon

mikevadon — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 11:07:41 +0000

Hehe. I believe all theories work for a time and then they don't work for a time. If all theories worked forever, then no one would be working and everyone would be trading the market. How many people do you know who make a living from the market or even professional gambling? I mean, those who do not have any other means of income besides the market? There are very few out there. If life were as simple as following a theory then everyone would be rich.

By: chartsandcoffee

chartsandcoffee — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 11:01:38 +0000

No problem. They are pretty snazzy. I've definitely had more followers since I added the button.

By: chartsandcoffee

chartsandcoffee — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 11:00:44 +0000

Definitely interesting, but I must say I am skeptical of curve fitting (back testing data and messing with the variables until you get the result you are looking for). Note that I am always skeptical but it is an interesting find and I'm always open to learning new things.

Judgment is key in balancing an open mind verses not buying into BS. For example, even though my bias is that Elliott Wave is not helpful, I'm reading a book right now and learning about it so I'm not bashing something I'm not familiar with.

By: chartsandcoffee

chartsandcoffee — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:49:47 +0000

Zee, tell me if this is an accurate analysis of STT or whether you are considering other factors. The stock is at $40.64. RSI is at 28. The 200 day is at $41. The 300 day is at $42. The bottom BB band is just under $38.

So the thinking is that there might be enough downside pressure to trap some shorts playing the 200/300 day SMA but that there isn't enough momentum left to take out the lower BB.

I'm also thinking you know this stock pretty well and that it often trades back to the middle BB which is your exit.

Your input would be appreciated.

By: uberVU - social comments

uberVU - social comments — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 08:50:11 +0000

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By: zstock

zstock — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 05:08:57 +0000

The key to a winning trade is to KNOW your exit price, and if the stock is below the exit price, go long–I have trades where they are 100% you will win–because I can clearly see where the exit price is—
This is how C&C operates, that's why I like his trading.