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Complex Head and Shoulders

Head_and_Shoulders

I am watching this intraday complex head and shoulders pattern. I’m keeping a pretty simple strategy. I’m going to stay with shorts such as REV until I see $TRIN dipping below 1 and/or this pattern invalidated. For now, $TRIN is hanging in there between 1.10 and 1.50 and this pattern has the potential to be realized. I’m currently net short. I would use the drop to bring my portfolio back to delta neutral.

Today could be a gift to the shorts that held up to key resistance levels. I mentioned in prior posts that shorts had no chance to escape Friday and on Monday.  I’ve already recouped some losses from yesterday and if this formation plays out I’ll have a very good day.

§1171 · November 10, 2009 · Uncategorized · · [Print]
  • roscoe_casita
    $TRIN @ 1.05, lots of VIX chop, TICK EMA 23,39 are about to turn negative again.

    This last hour and a half will be very interesting.
  • I'm starting to lose faith that this will go lower. I think many traders have the same thought I had. Wait to see if this thing breaks but cover some shorts if things are not looking weak into the close.

    Shorts had the chance but couldn't get it done. I covered my REV short at $13.95 once I saw TRIN moving lower and the ES marching towards positive territory. I'm thinking many shorts will throw in the towel towards the close covering shorts.

    At this point I'm expecting a close into the green or at the very least a close at the top of the range. TRIN is now turning bullish at .9
  • roscoe_casita
    I don't think shorts ever move the market lower, only buyers exiting.

    (this is theory of course)

    Having the bid drop out from underneath, and the ask following, not the ask dropping to a rising bid.

    ya, but then we start looking at a bull market that takes out the long term resistance lines from 2000 & 2007, which i don't but that it's over.

    I'm only paper trading at this point; i've gotten my ass handed to me over since Jan. I have a few long term otm puts, March 70's, and nov 23 up calls, as it's approaching the point where it's not even worth it to cash them out, i'll keep holding them. But I'm kinda crazy =)
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