Nov
3

Dollar Breakout?

UDN_013

Even with the Burlington Northern (BNI) acquisition, the market is opening weak because the dollar is poised to breakout over its 50 day SMA (or, in the case of UDN, breakdown below the 50 day SMA).

With FOMC tomorrow and the jobs number on Friday, now is not a time to get cute. I’m just watching it. However, a move over the 50-day would confirm the break of the trendline. With the declining dollar fuel being removed from the marketplace (fuel that has been in place since the bottom), it is hard to see the market moving higher in the short run with this major catalyst being removed (if the dollar trades sideways) or reversing (if the dollar enter an up trend).

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  • I covered some QQQQ short and replaced it with IYT short. IYT has horizontal resistance and the 50-day MA nearby.
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