Comments on: Emboldening Currency Traders http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/ Coffee, Charts and Technical Analysis Sat, 13 Mar 2010 17:23:06 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Black Friday | Charts and Coffee Blog http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/comment-page-1/#comment-445 Black Friday | Charts and Coffee Blog Sun, 15 Nov 2009 22:50:36 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/#comment-445 [...] that the market will rally on the news. Meanwhile, if the news is a little disappointing, the short Dollar carry trade will be supported and there is a good chance that the market still moves higher. Because it is next quarter’s [...] [...] that the market will rally on the news. Meanwhile, if the news is a little disappointing, the short Dollar carry trade will be supported and there is a good chance that the market still moves higher. Because it is next quarter’s [...]

]]> By: Trading Like 1999 | Charts and Coffee Blog http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/comment-page-1/#comment-406 Trading Like 1999 | Charts and Coffee Blog Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:39:33 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/#comment-406 [...] Notice how the Dollar dropped right after the report and the market moved higher. The forces at work this morning are the same forces that moved the market higher after last week’s... [...] [...] Notice how the Dollar dropped right after the report and the market moved higher. The forces at work this morning are the same forces that moved the market higher after last week’s… [...]

]]> By: Trading EURUSD and the Government Bubble | Charts and Coffee Blog http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/comment-page-1/#comment-291 Trading EURUSD and the Government Bubble | Charts and Coffee Blog Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:21:16 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/#comment-291 [...] So if $USDUPX does break through support at $54, my plan is to jump on this long established trend and ride the market long until such time as that 50-day SMA is broken on $USDUPX. Keep in mind that with all the talk of Dollar weakness we still have not even breached the lows of 2008. So we’re not in unchartered waters and presumably there is room for the Dollar to drop even further. We haven’t even taken out the 2008 lows yet. So perhaps Bernanke, Geithner and Co. will be comfortable with letting this run even lower. The reason the market is taking off is because they have given the green light on the Dollar carry trade. [...] [...] So if $USDUPX does break through support at $54, my plan is to jump on this long established trend and ride the market long until such time as that 50-day SMA is broken on $USDUPX. Keep in mind that with all the talk of Dollar weakness we still have not even breached the lows of 2008. So we’re not in unchartered waters and presumably there is room for the Dollar to drop even further. We haven’t even taken out the 2008 lows yet. So perhaps Bernanke, Geithner and Co. will be comfortable with letting this run even lower. The reason the market is taking off is because they have given the green light on the Dollar carry trade. [...]

]]> By: chartsandcoffee http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/comment-page-1/#comment-1309 chartsandcoffee Wed, 11 Nov 2009 04:52:09 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/#comment-1309 Sorry for the late response. I missed your comment. I think too many people buy into being a contrarian and judging sentiment. For example, in 1997-1998 every idiot in the world was talking up the stock market and the Internet. Many might have thought "this is a crowded trade and everyone is in it and I'll bet against it. Well, these bubbles that the public crowds into can last for years. <br><br>So even if gold is becoming a bubble and popular sentiment is behind gold, it doesn't mean it can't go higher with the public's euphoria behind it for years.<br><br>I would say that sentiment reading works best when they are at irrational extremes. An analog would be an indicator like RSI. At 70, a stock is considered overbought. However, this doesn't mean the stock can't go much higher for a while and remain overbought. Yet, when RSI gets 90+ it becomes irrationally overbought and and a correction becomes a certainty. But, you don't get many 90+ RSI readings. The same goes with sentiment. It hardly ever hits those extremes where it can become an accurate tool for short term trading. Sorry for the late response. I missed your comment. I think too many people buy into being a contrarian and judging sentiment. For example, in 1997-1998 every idiot in the world was talking up the stock market and the Internet. Many might have thought “this is a crowded trade and everyone is in it and I'll bet against it. Well, these bubbles that the public crowds into can last for years.

So even if gold is becoming a bubble and popular sentiment is behind gold, it doesn't mean it can't go higher with the public's euphoria behind it for years.

I would say that sentiment reading works best when they are at irrational extremes. An analog would be an indicator like RSI. At 70, a stock is considered overbought. However, this doesn't mean the stock can't go much higher for a while and remain overbought. Yet, when RSI gets 90+ it becomes irrationally overbought and and a correction becomes a certainty. But, you don't get many 90+ RSI readings. The same goes with sentiment. It hardly ever hits those extremes where it can become an accurate tool for short term trading.

]]> By: chartsandcoffee http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/comment-page-1/#comment-401 chartsandcoffee Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:52:09 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/#comment-401 Sorry for the late response. I missed your comment. I think too many people buy into being a contrarian and judging sentiment. For example, in 1997-1998 every idiot in the world was talking up the stock market and the Internet. Many might have thought "this is a crowded trade and everyone is in it and I'll bet against it. Well, these bubbles that the public crowds into can last for years. <br><br>So even if gold is becoming a bubble and popular sentiment is behind gold, it doesn't mean it can't go higher with the public's euphoria behind it for years.<br><br>I would say that sentiment reading works best when they are at irrational extremes. An analog would be an indicator like RSI. At 70, a stock is considered overbought. However, this doesn't mean the stock can't go much higher for a while and remain overbought. Yet, when RSI gets 90+ it becomes irrationally overbought and and a correction becomes a certainty. But, you don't get many 90+ RSI readings. The same goes with sentiment. It hardly ever hits those extremes where it can become an accurate tool for short term trading. Sorry for the late response. I missed your comment. I think too many people buy into being a contrarian and judging sentiment. For example, in 1997-1998 every idiot in the world was talking up the stock market and the Internet. Many might have thought “this is a crowded trade and everyone is in it and I'll bet against it. Well, these bubbles that the public crowds into can last for years.

So even if gold is becoming a bubble and popular sentiment is behind gold, it doesn't mean it can't go higher with the public's euphoria behind it for years.

I would say that sentiment reading works best when they are at irrational extremes. An analog would be an indicator like RSI. At 70, a stock is considered overbought. However, this doesn't mean the stock can't go much higher for a while and remain overbought. Yet, when RSI gets 90+ it becomes irrationally overbought and and a correction becomes a certainty. But, you don't get many 90+ RSI readings. The same goes with sentiment. It hardly ever hits those extremes where it can become an accurate tool for short term trading.

]]> By: chartsandcoffee http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/comment-page-1/#comment-286 chartsandcoffee Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:52:09 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/#comment-286 Sorry for the late response. I missed your comment. I think too many people buy into being a contrarian and judging sentiment. For example, in 1997-1998 every idiot in the world was talking up the stock market and the Internet. Many might have thought "this is a crowded trade and everyone is in it and I'll bet against it. Well, these bubbles that the public crowds into can last for years. <br><br>So even if gold is becoming a bubble and popular sentiment is behind gold, it doesn't mean it can't go higher with the public's euphoria behind it for years.<br><br>I would say that sentiment reading works best when they are at irrational extremes. An analog would be an indicator like RSI. At 70, a stock is considered overbought. However, this doesn't mean the stock can't go much higher for a while and remain overbought. Yet, when RSI gets 90+ it becomes irrationally overbought and and a correction becomes a certainty. But, you don't get many 90+ RSI readings. The same goes with sentiment. It hardly ever hits those extremes where it can become an accurate tool for short term trading. Sorry for the late response. I missed your comment. I think too many people buy into being a contrarian and judging sentiment. For example, in 1997-1998 every idiot in the world was talking up the stock market and the Internet. Many might have thought “this is a crowded trade and everyone is in it and I'll bet against it. Well, these bubbles that the public crowds into can last for years.

So even if gold is becoming a bubble and popular sentiment is behind gold, it doesn't mean it can't go higher with the public's euphoria behind it for years.

I would say that sentiment reading works best when they are at irrational extremes. An analog would be an indicator like RSI. At 70, a stock is considered overbought. However, this doesn't mean the stock can't go much higher for a while and remain overbought. Yet, when RSI gets 90+ it becomes irrationally overbought and and a correction becomes a certainty. But, you don't get many 90+ RSI readings. The same goes with sentiment. It hardly ever hits those extremes where it can become an accurate tool for short term trading.

]]> By: Sunday Night Coffee – 11/8/2009 | Charts and Coffee Blog http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/comment-page-1/#comment-261 Sunday Night Coffee – 11/8/2009 | Charts and Coffee Blog Sun, 08 Nov 2009 23:32:09 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/#comment-261 [...] Keep in mind the consolidation phase could include a decent bounce causing a selloff in the market. Based on the Fed seeming to telegraph that it is not raising interest rates anytime soon, I would be a little surprised to see a hard bounce off of [...] [...] Keep in mind the consolidation phase could include a decent bounce causing a selloff in the market. Based on the Fed seeming to telegraph that it is not raising interest rates anytime soon, I would be a little surprised to see a hard bounce off of [...]

]]> By: uberVU - social comments http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/comment-page-1/#comment-245 uberVU - social comments Sat, 07 Nov 2009 14:39:25 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/#comment-245 <strong>Social comments and analytics for this post...</strong> This post was mentioned on Twitter by chartsandcoffee: Emboldening Currency Traders $GLD $USO $UUP $UDN - http://bit.ly/2dPoUv $$... Social comments and analytics for this post…

This post was mentioned on Twitter by chartsandcoffee: Emboldening Currency Traders $GLD $USO $UUP $UDN – http://bit.ly/2dPoUv $$…

]]> By: rlamura http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/comment-page-1/#comment-247 rlamura Sat, 07 Nov 2009 13:15:53 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/#comment-247 Thank you for your analysis! I was just wondering if a widely perception about investing in gold and gold related stocks because of future growing inflation and short the dollar because an ever increasing budget deficit in the long term and an interest rate spread is a sign of topping action in a short time Thank you for your analysis! I was just wondering if a widely perception about investing in gold and gold related stocks because of future growing inflation and short the dollar because an ever increasing budget deficit in the long term and an interest rate spread is a sign of topping action in a short time

]]> By: chartsandcoffee http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/comment-page-1/#comment-241 chartsandcoffee Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:32:29 +0000 http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/11/emboldening-currency-traders/#comment-241 I haven't repostioned myself in either direction yet. I'm still hedged. This is my hypothesis as to what is going on but ultimately I want to see the dollar regain its trend or break the 50 day SMA before I start getting long or short. I am long GLD, COW, BAL, xLE and I also added a position in USO a little while ago. I haven't repostioned myself in either direction yet. I'm still hedged. This is my hypothesis as to what is going on but ultimately I want to see the dollar regain its trend or break the 50 day SMA before I start getting long or short. I am long GLD, COW, BAL, xLE and I also added a position in USO a little while ago.

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