Stocks, charts, risk management & coffee

Using the QQQQs as our guide, it looks like the 2 month bull run is over. Key support was broken at approximately $33.60. I expect this to move down to the next fib line at $31.70.
To really get things moving, 880 will need to be broken on $SPX ($88 SPY).

Price momentum is also breaking down [...]

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§237 · May 13, 2009 · ESI, HMSY, KWT, SPY, UNG, XME, XRT, qqqq · View Comments ·


QQQQs were looking weak this morning and it looked like support could be broken. But towards the end of the day the market rallied and today was a non-event.
A few people asked me why I was shorting ESI right here.

The stock has been very compliant with my fib lines. The 61.8% fib line is right [...]

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§234 · May 12, 2009 · ESI, HMSY, qqqq · View Comments ·


I have flipped through a few hundred charts and I see more patterns and technical setups than I have seen in a real long time. Some weeks, one Sunday does not look much different than the last. There was a lot of movement in the market last week and the technical setup has changed quite [...]

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§226 · May 10, 2009 · $VIX, AAP, AZO, BIG, C, DRI, ESI, GME, GOLD, MNRO, NFLX, ORLY, SEA, SPY, UUP, XLU, XLV, XME, XRT, qqqq · View Comments ·


This week, many of the major indexes are right at resistance or support. We definitely want to be prepared for action this week and all of the potential permutations of how things could play out.

We are all waiting to see if the January and February highs at 880 ($88 SPY) will be a breakout or [...]

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§179 · April 26, 2009 · AAPL, ADM, AMZN, BSY, CSCO, CVX, ESI, Education Stocks, IYT, MSFT, NFLX, QCOM, SMH, SPY, TLT, WFT, XRT, qqqq · View Comments ·


My analysis of the coming week is that the market right now is harder than it has been all year. While it may seem boring, I will continue to play the market from a hedged portfolio. I’m staying in idle mode and I am keeping the throttle pulled back.
From a bullish perspective, all of [...]

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§151 · April 12, 2009 · $VIX, BSY, DIA, ESI, Education Stocks, KOL, KWT, SPY, Sunday Night Coffee, fxi, qqqq · View Comments ·


The fibs continue to amaze. I’ve used the retracement levels feature in Prophet to plot out the key levels on $SPX. I gave the entire list of RL levels in anticipation for trading down to 600 in my “Fib Spectacles” post earlier this week (whether it is soon or later in the year).
Because the [...]

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§93 · February 25, 2009 · $spx, CBI, ESI, Fibonacci Friendly, GLD, PTM, Precious Metals, RCL, SLV · View Comments ·


It was only a couple of weeks ago that I posted “be patient” or “wait for the triangle to break.” In contrast, we are now hitting one of those points in the year where things are getting easier and lots of money can be made. I have observed over my years of trading that every [...]

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§92 · February 24, 2009 · $spx, ESI, FXY, GLD, PTM, SLV, SPY, VXX · View Comments ·


I will start off today’s Sunday Night Coffee post by getting a handle on the broader indexes and I will get more narrow in scope from there. I’ll be discussing the major indexes, the dollar, yen, some long ideas, the European banks, Las Vegas and my general trading plan for the week.
The first chart is [...]

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§89 · February 22, 2009 · CVX, DIA, ESI, FXY, GLD, GME, HMSY, HYG, IYR, IYT, JNK, MANT, PEGA, PTM, SLV, SPY, UUP, XLE, XOM · View Comments ·


I’m going to do tonight post in reverse order. I’ll revisit the indexes at the end of my post. There is actually more exciting things to blog about tonight than just a rehash of the indexes. This has been a really exciting week.
The first item of interest today was that I noticed a “tale [...]

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§86 · February 19, 2009 · Auto Parts Sector, BAC, BCS, C, ESI, Education Stocks, Financials, PEGA, SPY, lyg · View Comments ·