Keep an eye on FXE (EURUSD) if you haven’t been. There is a confluence zone at $137.50 (note the horizontal support and 300 DMA). I mentioned last night that EURUSD is in bear mode. That doesn’t mean it can’t recover and its oversold state makes it quite likely that we could see a countertrend [...]
Continue reading about Balancing Caution and Opportunity Costs
China is the leader in economic growth and the market is not likely to go higher without China. FXI is headed to test its 200 DMA. I have effectively bought the bounce by adding a position in PGJ. However, I don’t plan on adding more long exposure until I see how FXI reacts with [...]
Continue reading about Watching China and EURUSD; Shorting Stocks
While I don’t think there is much trading to do before the new year, there are some movements that are worth keeping on the radar.
LQD. It is too early to tell, but the market may be at the beginning stages of pricing in interest rate hikes. LQD has been trading sideways since its trendline [...]
I’m going to wait until next week for the confirmation, but the intermediate term bottom I have been writing about for USD may be in. FXE is currently trading below the 50-day SMA which has not occurred since April. Note that there were some very minor protrusions in August and October so we’ll need [...]
I’m watching the EURUSD trade which is currently at $1.5042. Not surprisingly, futures are up. The ES is currently up +8. There is no major economic or earnings news this morning so barring an exogenous event causing a strengthening Dollar I would expect the markets to open to the upside this morning.
I am very confident [...]
Continue reading about Trading EURUSD and the Government Bubble
For a light portfolio, things are going very nicely. FXE and UDN are breaking out and UNG is on fire again. I added a little to my long UDN position on the breakout. I sold off my profits in UNG to bring my position back to its original position size.
Note that breakout on XME today [...]
Continue reading about UDN and FXE Breakout; TSPT – RSI 93/10 Trade
If I had to classify my trading style among trend trader, swing trader and day trader, I definitely see myself generally as a swing trader. For swing traders, last week was generally a complete waste of time. The major indexes closed in about the same spot as they opened on Monday.
The good: I played the [...]
Continue reading about Swing Trading, Trend Trading, Day Trading
I titled this post “don’t worry about being a sucker” because I think many intelligent traders carry a long term bearish bias on the direction of the market (and the economy) and therefore hate the idea of being caught long when the market finally does come back to reality. There is this common thought of [...]
I mentioned back in May that I was watching Google Trends as a market sentiment indicator. This is the first week in which I can actually apply the concepts discussed in that post (click on Google Trends under labels to view the post).
I find it interesting that the search volume for “bear market” is back [...]
Today certainly broke the boredom trend of the last couple of weeks but technically it didn’t change anything. As I mentioned this afternoon, today was a gut check because many stocks and indexes zoomed right back down to support. Notice that the QQQQs are right back at support? Will the October gap be filled? I’ll [...]
Continue reading about QQQQs at Support; Natural Gas (UNG); Euro (FXE)
