I ended up taking a short vacation this weekend, so there will be no educational post until later this week (likely Saturday).
I do think Thursday’s weak price action will spill over into this week. If you look at the overnight futures from Thursday, the head and shoulders pattern is obvious but the target after the [...]
I have been trimming position sizes on junk longs for months and selling some of them off completely. The junk simply has not been performing well over the past couple of weeks and I have started to aggressively purge my portfolio of many of these junk long names today. I think the “junk long” trade [...]
Today certainly broke the boredom trend of the last couple of weeks but technically it didn’t change anything. As I mentioned this afternoon, today was a gut check because many stocks and indexes zoomed right back down to support. Notice that the QQQQs are right back at support? Will the October gap be filled? I’ll [...]
TLT is about at my target price and should find support in the $87 range. Why $87? We have strong horizontal support, fib support and downside momentum is getting extended (RSI at 30). So what does it mean for the market? Recently, treasuries tend to go up on down days when there is a “flight [...]
Who keeps buying natural gas? This has certainly not been an easy trade. Especially as of late, there are huge swings throughout the day. I think this one ends up being a good trade for the longs so long as you don’t get thrown out of the boat before it moves higher.
The trend is still [...]
THE BIG PICTURE
I’ve looked at 200-300 charts this morning and the charts generally look bullish to me. I’ve been following QQQQ to give me market direction, and we set a new intraday high over the May high and the intraday action also breached into the October gap (although it has yet to fill it). There [...]
I will start by saying today was a great day. After the rough day yesterday, I got almost all of it back today. Even better, I think I added some good inventory today. I will get to the daily analysis in a minute.
One thing some of my readers have learned but many do not know [...]
I’m going to skip the market recap today. The big picture has not changed. The story is that dollar continues to drop and currency funds such as FXB and FXA are breaking out.
Shame on anyone that misses the breakout on IBB from this symmetrical triangle. This one is ripe. Could be a $12-15 move.
SEA [...]
Volatility has not been this low since September. I must admit I am starting to get bored. My portfolio is getting bored too. I am 100% invested right now (which is quite unusual for me) and my portfolio has barely moved in either direction this week.
The QQQQs could not break new resistance today in the [...]
Using the QQQQs as our guide, it looks like the 2 month bull run is over. Key support was broken at approximately $33.60. I expect this to move down to the next fib line at $31.70.
To really get things moving, 880 will need to be broken on $SPX ($88 SPY).
Price momentum is also breaking down [...]