Strong USD contains the market today. A break of the 89-day SMA will confirm the breakout of the 50-day SMA. Let’s see if my prediction of sideways action in USD similar to March-August 2008 comes into play instead of a sharp reversal as many predict (mainly because of anchoring towards USD being in a [...]
I haven’t made a single trade today. The indexes continue to churn up against expected resistance points and I’m not able to find any setups today. We also have the jobs report tomorrow and I’m happy with how my portfolio is setup going into tomorrow. I decided to take a look at the major indexes [...]
¶ USO
USO is trading above its 300 day SMA in the pre-market. This average has been acting as resistance. If USO can breakout here, we might be entering another uptrend in crude oil.
I’m starting this week off in similar fashion to last week by looking at moving averages and identifying primary trends. Watching primary trends helps smooth out trading noise and prevents reacting to every little wiggle. I’ve marked in red the trend changes from the prior week. Among the major averages, SPX, QQQQ and FXI all [...]
Everything oil related is breaking out.
USO breaking out.
Breakout on XLE.
OIH breaking out.
UGA may also make a new high.
Usually, when you see everything aligned like we do now, it is evidence that it is a real move rather than a fakeout. With that in mind, I’m adding an XLE position. Using $57 as a [...]
I started looking at various market indexes this morning and wondered how it was possible that the stock market could be 50-60% off of its lows (but still 30% from its highs) with fake government unemployment numbers approaching 10% and real unemployment above 10%. In terms of failed institutions, we have lost Bear Stearns, Lehman [...]
Volume is picking up as the market rolls over. Still too early to tell, but I’m getting more confident on the short side.
The QQQQs got all pumped up today and marched towards resistance at $33.50 only to fall back.
The QQQQs are hitting the resistance at $33.50 in textbook fashion.
If there is a leg lower [...]
Well, the break above 805 and break below it was pretty quick. Not good for the bulls that this key level rolled over so easily. I’m more comfortable trading the short side in this market because it is the primary trend. When the price goes down, I tend to believe it. When we have these [...]
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/21/news/economy/bank_bailout_next_step/index.htm?postversion=2009032209
Looks like we got another over the weekend press release from the government. We should get our first look at what the markets think of it when ES begins trading in a few hours as well as the Asian markets. Like most headlines, I don’t think it affects how to trade the market but it [...]